XXXX a major international investment bank specializing in online trading and investment on all international financial markets each year, its established ten economists forecasts called "outrageous" because rarely occur, but should realize that if you produce a great impact on portfolios.
Last year, three of these estimates are really made, and are
- the United States have actually witnessed the birth of a third party ( Tea Party);
- the rent of German bonds fell to 2.25% (in August) ;
- the price of sugar really lost one third of its value (in May). So the mad
2010 showed that three out of ten of those who earlier this year were defined as forecasts unlikely or not at all likely to have proved the truth, very proud of those XXXX, punctually, it also invigorated by the "success" returned to the office this year, "shooting" again. Given the course of events of these years, chances are they will make a nice ba, divining in 2011 some possible distortion in the worlds of finance, politics and economics. Let's see what they have planned this year:
1. The U.S. Congress block the QE3 ( new monetary injection ). The Federal Reserve will be in the dock in the second half. Its monetary policy has produced real estate and banking crisis as well as a significant portion of the increase in public debt . Congress should prevent the Federal Reserve to double its budget and perhaps even lead it to reconsider its dual mandate of price stability and low unemployment.
2. Apple buy Facebook. Steve Jobs proposed a partnership with Facebook, but negotiations have not led to an agreement that would make everyone happy. Apple probably will try the offer.
3. The U.S. dollar earn 25% . The world economy seems to recover, but the turmoil might come from China , in particular by a slowdown in the industrial sector. With the European economies and Japan in difficulty, the dollar could gain a good 25%.
4. The return on U.S. bonds over 30 years will fall to 3% , taking advantage of the search for a "value refuge."
5. The Australian dollar lose 25% against the pound , given that Britain seems to find his ancestral values: the work, the savings and growth. Australia, by contrast, would suffer from any instability in China.
6. The oil will rise to $ 100, following estimates of regrowth American before losing a third of its value.
7. The natural gas earn 50% thanks to a sharp increase in demand.
8. L ' gold will rise to $ 1,800 an ounce , taking advantage of the "war of currencies".
9. The S & P 500 index of U.S. stocks will exceed its record level of 2007 and earn 30% effect of monetary policy, and whether or not this will be followed by the economy reale.
10 . L’indice delle azioni russe ( RTS - Russian Trading System) raddoppierà di valore, approfittando inizialmente dell’aumento del petrolio, ma anche di una valutazione particolarmente vantaggiosa, a un PER (Price-Earnings Ratio, rapporto prezzo/utili) di sole 8,6 volte.
Un’analisi particolareggiata, molto tecnica ovviamente, ma di sicuro c’è che non si tratta di ipotesi del tutto campate in aria. Alla XXXX si conta di centrare il bersaglio con una delle previsioni in particolare? La risposta è sì: per il responsabile del consiglio sul mercato, la previsione “oltraggiosa” che produrrà il più forte impatto sui portafogli sarà la prima.
“ Sarà tutto l’edificio a crollare ” ha dichiarato in un’intervista al Temps. A noi non resta altro da fare che vedere come si sviluppano le cose, sperando di non sentire la “botta”, segno che il crollo non sarà avvenuto, e che l’economia americana, tuttora la più forte al Mondo, non avrà mandato il sistema finanziario internazionale nel parapiglia.
[fonte riservata]